Vocabulary · Volume 1 and Volume 2
Forecast
An estimate of future demand under stated assumptions, with an as-of date showing what was known when it was made. A revision after plans change is a new forecast, not evidence that the earlier one was accurate.
Discussed in the book
Chapters where “Forecast” is discussed at length, ranked by how directly each section treats it.
- Volume I, Chapter 3: The Players and the Vocabulary
Sections: The nouns that change a meeting · Find the people who already know
- Volume I, Chapter 4: The Simplest Practice
Sections: Come back after the launch · How to read this chapter · Run the complete example
- Volume I, Chapter 7: AI Services and Token Capacity
- Volume I, Chapter 8: Measuring AI Workloads
Sections: What the weighted index cannot tell you
- Volume I, Chapter 9: Orchestration and Agentic Topologies
Sections: The memory layer · Topologies
- Volume I, Chapter 10: Specialized Hardware
Sections: The sizing process
- Volume I, Chapter 11: Exotic Hardware: Quantum and Emerging Capacity
- Volume I, Chapter 13: Measuring Value
- Volume II, Chapter 14: Seasonal Variation
Sections: What the uncertainty changes · Put the conversation next to the model · Recreate what you could have known · Start with a comparison we can understand · Read errors in the unit of the decision · How to read this chapter · · First decide what you are forecasting
- Volume II, Chapter 15: The Long Tail and the Spike
Sections: Errors do not necessarily cancel · A small change can spend the remaining headroom · The population is allowed to change · Put an investigation threshold next to the headroom
- Volume II, Chapter 16: A Portfolio of Customers
Sections: A process for the largest consumers and the long tail · When the plans do not agree · · How to read this chapter
- Volume II, Chapter 17: The Relationship Discipline
Sections: Make early information worth sharing · When the answer has a sponsor · Keep the relationship bigger than one number
- Volume II, Chapter 19: Managing Risks and Anomalies
Sections: What the capacity team is for, when it happens · How to read this chapter · The year the water reached the supply chain
- Volume II, Chapter 20: Commitments Between Organizations
Sections: Decide what changes when demand changes
- Volume II, Chapter 22: The Monthly Capacity Review
Sections: Start with what is already due · Keep the original forecast · · How to read this chapter · Review the decision, not only the prediction · Don't wait for the next review · The capacity team's own record
Related posts
Blog posts that discuss “Forecast”.
- Two Million GPUs Is Not Two Million Instances2026-11-09
- Systems Outlive Their Assumptions2026-10-09
- Nobody Asked the AI Team Why2026-10-13