Without Surprise.

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AI infrastructure Models, GPUs, and the cost of inference →Cloud economics Pricing, commitments, and the bill →Capacity planning Demand, headroom, and scaling decisions →Risk & resilience Supply constraints and plans that survive change →
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The free online books · Scale Without Surprise

The longer view.

Two connected volumes on cost, capacity, and managing at scale. Read every chapter online, without an account.

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Both books, chapter by chapter

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Volume I · Chapters 1–13

Understanding Cost, Capacity, and Capability

START HEREIntroduction
Part IThe Decisions
01What Computing Costs
Summary · 4 minPDF ↓32 min full read
02Capacity Is a Decision
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓24 min full read
03The Players and the Vocabulary
Summary · 4 minPDF ↓22 min full read
Part IIUnderstanding the Work
04The Simplest Practice
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓14 min full read
05Knowing Your Workloads
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓15 min full read
06Built-In Tools
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓16 min full read
07AI Services and Token Capacity
Summary · 4 minPDF ↓22 min full read
08Measuring AI Workloads
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓20 min full read
09Orchestration and Agentic Topologies
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓15 min full read
10Specialized Hardware
Summary · 4 minPDF ↓24 min full read
11Exotic Hardware: Quantum and Emerging Capacity
Summary · 5 minPDF ↓26 min full read
12Databases and Data-Bound Technologies
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓25 min full read
13Measuring Value
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓19 min full read
From Understanding to a DecisionUsing the CompanionFurther ReadingGlossaryAbout the Author
Volume II · Chapters 14–24

Managing Demand, Risk, and Scale

START HEREIntroduction
Part IIIDemand and Uncertainty
14Seasonal Variation
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓17 min full read
15The Long Tail and the Spike
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓15 min full read
16A Portfolio of Customers
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓15 min full read
Part IVRunning the Practice
17The Relationship Discipline
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓23 min full read
18Reserve Capacity
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓13 min full read
19Managing Risks and Anomalies
Summary · 4 minPDF ↓29 min full read
20Commitments Between Organizations
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓17 min full read
21Multiple Markets
Summary · 4 minPDF ↓16 min full read
22The Monthly Capacity Review
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓17 min full read
23What Scale Brings
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓17 min full read
24Markets for Compute
Summary · 3 minPDF ↓17 min full read
Using the CompanionFurther ReadingGlossaryAbout the Author

About the author

Timothy O’Brien

Writing about software, organizations, and the economics of running systems, drawing on open-source development and years of managing cloud cost and capacity. Meet the author →